DC Lite #344

In partnership with

1. Trucking rates. "Truck driver is the number one job in 34 states. Rates fell off a cliff since Liberation Day."

2. Hard vs. soft data. "If the hard data [blue] does not turn lower in the next few weeks to month, we will have to start asking if there has been a big misunderstanding about the impact of tariffs on the economy."

3. USD hedging. Bearish USD "sentiment is now spilling into options markets, where traders are paying a premium — for the first time in five years — to hedge against a weaker greenback over the next 12 months."

4. Sentiment Composite. "We are currently seeing more bears than bulls enter the market, as my sentiment composite has reached a new 16-month high. It's remarkable how price action can influence sentiment."

5. US vs. G10. "US stock market underperformance versus stock markets in the rest of the G10 is approaching -10%. This is about two things: (i) markets think tariffs hurt the US more than the rest of the world; (ii) markets are unwinding the US exceptionalism trade."

ICYMI

• Tue 4/15 #343: "The dollar and yields - not stocks - will hold the whip hand with indicating when further softening with US tariff policy is likely"

• Mon 4/14 #342: Goldman has CTAs modeled as buyers of US stocks in all scenarios over the next week and month

• Fri 4/11 #341: "History strongly suggests both the Nasdaq 100 and US large cap Tech sector should rally over the next 50 trading days, and by double digits."

• Thu 4/10 #340: "This earnings season isn’t about corporate results. It’s about tariffs"