DC Lite #346

1. Gold ETF flows. "Global Gold ETF Flows have reached record levels."

2. DXY vs. SPX. "The speed with which the Dollar is falling (lhs) - coupled with ongoing declines in US stocks (rhs) - is a worry. So far, the fall in USD and S&P 500 have been a cyclical re-rating of the US. But this latest fall feels different and is fueled by fears over Fed independence."

3. Safe Haven flows. "Our 'Safety Dance Index' (flows into gold, treasuries and low vol stocks) is showing one of its highest readings in April.. first real sign of nerves in ETFs flows. That said, VOO & Co still hauling in the cash = I think ppl DCA-ing but also adding safe havens for peace of mind."

4. Systematic positioning. "We estimate that the systematic macro rebalance has effectively been completed, with global equity length going from approximately an 8 out of 10 during the YTD/February highs to a 1 out of 10 currently."

5. US earnings revisions. "A significant increase in negative earnings revisions is currently underway, largely driven by trade tensions and tariffs. The last comparable decline occurred during the COVID-19 crash."

ICYMI