DC Lite #347

1. Capex intentions. "The regional manufacturing PMIs are telling you that business investment is likely to crumble. Our tracker of capital spending intentions across the various regional PMIs tumbled to -3.9, the lowest since May 2020. Watch non-defense capital goods ex-aircraft shipments closely."

2. Foreigners vs. USTs. "Foreign holdings of US Treasuries have steadily declined as a proportion of outstanding debt. Two ways of viewing this: one, it makes the market more vulnerable with a less diversified base of buyers. Or two, it makes markets more resilient in the face of foreign selling."

3. GLD. "The total assets of the largest gold bullion exchange-traded fund, run by State Street Global Advisors, are at a record, but that’s largely because of the gold price. The total number of shares outstanding, a good gauge of retail interest, is still far below the Covid-shelter peak of 2020."

4. Sector flows. Despite the sharp downturn in price investors are still buying Tech stocks.

5. Breadth. "The S&P 500’s advance/decline line has held up well above the early 2025 lows, whereas the S&P 500 price has broken beneath those levels, suggesting there is potential strength under the surface."

ICYMI