DC Lite #350

1. Yield curve vs. profits vs. lending. "One risk from tariffs in the coming months ties to the inverted curve and narrowing profit margins moving banks to curtail lending. Here is where Fed rate cutting could be most effective."

2. Foreigners vs. US equities. "While trade policy concerns, slowing growth, and dollar depreciation have created headwinds, Goldman expects moderate foreign selling of US equities in March-April, driven by valuation opportunities and strategic positioning."

3. Consecutive gains. From Tuesday-Thursday, the S&P 500 was up "at least 1.5% for three days in a row. This isn't stuff you see in bear market rallies or short covering rallies. You see this before times of strong performance. Higher 10 out of 10 times a year later and up 21.6% on average."

4. VIX rollercoaster. By my count, the VIX had only made the roundtrip from above 50 to below 25 twice before today: in 2008-2009 and 2020. These took 284 and 88 sessions, respectively. With today's close, the index accomplished that feat in just 12.

5. Analysts price targets. "The tariff back-and-forth has now prompted 11 of the Wall Street research teams we track to cut their S&P 500 targets."

ICYMI