DC Lite #60

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1. NFP (I). The US added 353k jobs in January, nearly twice the consensus estimate (180k) and the largest increase in a year.

2. Global commodity prices. Global commodity prices rose (marginally) for the first time in 9 months at the start of 2024 but reported supply shortages remain below long-run averages.

3. Corporate maturity wall. "Roughly $276bn (IG+HY) corporate bonds need to be refinanced in Q2 2024  Despite the recent bond rally: HY must refinance from an avg coupon of 5.8% to 9%. IG must refinance from an avg coupon of 3.77% to 5.75%, the highest since Q3 2007 (excluding Q3 '23 peak of 5.79%)."

4. Nasdaq vs. 10-year yield. In 2023, the Nasdaq rose as yields fell. So far in 2024, that trend has reversed into "price-action which occurs either post-recession (’09) or bubbles (’99)."

5. Q1 EPS revisions. Analysts cut Q1 EPS estimates by 1.4% in January. That is lower than the average decline during the first month of a quarter going back 5, 10, and 15 years.