DC Lite #76

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1. US housing market. "The U.S. housing market gained $2.4 trillion over the last year, bringing its total value to $47.5 trillion."

2. GDP growth. "Q4 2023 GDP was revised marginally down from 3.3% to 3.2%. This is despite upward revisions in consumer spending, net exports and government spending, as private investment had a comparatively larger downward revision."

3. Disinflation vs. economic growth. "Disinflation tends to administer a stimulus to the economy over the following 12 months, even though it often results from an economic slowing down."

See: Paulsen Perspectives

4. Smart vs. Dumb Money Confidence. "The major stock indexes have tacked on good gains, and Dumb Money Confidence has risen. That's totally normal. What's not normal is that Smart Money Confidence increased as well. We've never seen it to this degree since we began computing the models in 1998. After similar behavior, the S&P struggled with either negative or just-barely-positive returns over the next couple of months."

5. Equity risk premium. “The Magnificent 7 trades at less than half the equity risk premium of the remaining 493.”