DC Lite #84

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1. Excess savings. "The rundown is more likely to be a gentle slope than a cliff edge...As long as the labor market remains tight, we believe the rundown of household savings is consistent with balance sheet normalization and a slowdown, not a collapse."

2. Employment Trends Index. The ETI "decreased in February to 112.29, from a downwardly revised 113.18 in January...the labor market is likely to cool off, with modest job gains expected through Q3 and Q4 of 2024."

3. BTC supply vs. demand. "The launch of the ETFs on the 11th of January has led to an average daily demand of 4500 bitcoins (trading days only), while only an average of 921 new bitcoin were minted per day."

4. Sentiment Indicator. Goldman's equity positioning indicator is at its most "stretched" since last summer.

5. Valuations vs. Fed. “Since the beginning of this year, valuations have continued to expand in the face of a more hawkish Fed relative to what had been priced just a few months ago.”