Sunday Chartbook #1

Welcome to PAV Chartbook: market charts, data, research, and insights pulled from various sources around the Internet by a solo retail investor.

1. Snarls slow down. Supply chain constraints are coming down from pandemic levels.

2. Happy surprises. US data surprises have been positive lately

3. Work From Home. US office occupancy rate by cities. Tech-heavy San Francisco is well below average.

4. Inflation kills real wage growth. Stagnant for years, real wages finally saw significant growth through the pandemic but purchasing power has been stunted by rising prices.

5. The poor get poorer. Goldman predicts the bottom 80% of Americans will see their real disposable incomes drop in 2022. The top 20% will be fine.

6. Web3. Will Web3 boost ad spend? By how much?A lot according to RSM.

7. Tech IPOs. The next few charts are from RSM’s capital markets outlook. After a fruitful 2020-21 (mainly for the investment banks facilitating the deals), tech startups are pumping the brakes on public listings.

8. VC dealmaking. Venture capitalist dealmaking fell off a cliff after 2021.

9. VC raising. Fundraising activity has been cut nearly in half in 2022.

10. Checking in on China. The Chinese property market is likely the biggest asset class in the world at ~$62 trillion.

11. Rising default risks. Goldman is raising their FY22 forecast for the China Property HY default rate to 45% (from 31.6%).

12. EU energy. Crisis was averted with Nord Stream reopening this week (many feared Putin would keep the pipeline closed). Gas is flowing at 40% capacity which is keeping the market tight and prices near record highs.

13. Earnings szn. Here are the week’s most anticipated earnings.

14. Top stocks. Here are Investor’s Business Daily’s top 30 stocks right now.

15. Bottoms & recessions. "On average, the S&P 500 tends to bottom about 4 months before the official recession end date".

16. Better breadth. The percentage of countries in which growth is being downgraded has declined.

17. Defensives vs. cyclicals. Even throughout the latest rally investor inflows have been favoring defensives over cyclicals.

18. Short covering. JPM’s basket of highly shorted stocks had one of their biggest 5-day gains in a year last week (+12.5%).

19. How households have changed. Here’s a look at the living arrangements of 25-34 year olds

20. Real house prices. Here’s how much house prices rose during the pandemic vs their original projections.

21. And finally—forecasting is hard. The European Central Bank has been very wrong about inflation.